Fireblight infection conditions - MaryBlyt model logic

Background Information for this page
Return to radar list for Hollis NH
Weather data for Hollis NH.  Forecast values begin September 12, 2012
Shoots near overwintered fireblight cankers would start showing obvious symptoms around  Friday, June 01
 If canker blight infection spreads to other shoots,
symptoms on those shoots would become obvious around Sunday, June 17
 If blossom infection occurred April 16, blossom blight would be noticeable by May 18, and shoot blight by May 27.
Range of potential
open-blossom dates

Gray row shading indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms and susceptibility to blossom infection, but late blooming cultivars or young trees may still be susceptible.
EIP = Epiphytic inoculum potential threshold.

% EIP,
Inches Rain,
Leaf Wet Hours,
&
Avg. Temperature
    
     In absence of rain, 3 or more hours of leaf wetness is counted as possible dew conditions for adequate wetting, which may overstate risk on such days.
Maryblyt Infection Requirements:
100% EIP (>=198 cumulative degree hours > 65F),
+ > 0" rain, or > 0.1 inch rain on previous day,
+  
Average temp. on wetting day >= 60F
McIntosh King Bloom
 Mon, April 16 
  103%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  72F INFECTION RISK
Tue, April 17    165%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  69F No FB infection
Wed, April 18    111%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  52F No FB infection
Thu, April 19    116%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Fri, April 20    153%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  61F No FB infection
Sat, April 21    180%,  0.06'',  0 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Sun, April 22    121%,  2.11'',  22 hrs.,  49F No FB infection
Mon, April 23    47%,  0.36'',  24 hrs.,  51F No FB infection
Tue, April 24    31%,  0.0'',  6 hrs.,  49F No FB infection
Wed, April 25    21%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  48F No FB infection
Thu, April 26    14%,  0.23'',  6 hrs.,  49F No FB infection
Fri, April 27    9%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  47F No FB infection
Sat, April 28    6%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  45F No FB infection
Sun, April 29    4%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  46F No FB infection
Mon, April 30    0%,  0.24'',  0 hrs.,  48F No FB infection
Tue, May 1    0%,  0.53'',  21 hrs.,  46F No FB infection
Wed, May 2    0%,  0.13'',  15 hrs.,  47F No FB infection
Thu, May 3    0%,  0.11'',  22 hrs.,  49F No FB infection
Fri, May 4    0%,  0.12'',  24 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Sat, May 5    0%,  0.0'',  14 hrs.,  55F No FB infection
Sun, May 6    0%,  0.0'',  5 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Mon, May 7    7%,  0.21'',  0 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Tue, May 8    4%,  0.40'',  22 hrs.,  52F No FB infection
Wed, May 9    3%,  0.79'',  24 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Thu, May 10    2%,  0.04'',  14 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Fri, May 11    1%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  54F No FB infection
Sat, May 12    45%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  60F No FB infection
Sun, May 13    108%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Mon, May 14    110%,  0.51'',  16 hrs.,  60F INFECTION RISK
Tue, May 15    120%,  0.43'',  20 hrs.,  62F INFECTION RISK
Wed, May 16    92%,  0.33'',  22 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Thu, May 17    34%,  0.0'',  8 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Fri, May 18    46%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Sat, May 19    86%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Sun, May 20    135%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Mon, May 21    140%,  0.21'',  5 hrs.,  60F INFECTION RISK
Tue, May 22    126%,  0.38'',  24 hrs.,  62F INFECTION RISK
Wed, May 23    121%,  0.02'',  17 hrs.,  67F INFECTION RISK
Thu, May 24    89%,  0.0'',  12 hrs.,  67F No FB infection
Fri, May 25    103%,  0.0'',  14 hrs.,  65F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sat, May 26    159%,  0.0'',  11 hrs.,  73F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Sun, May 27    184%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  68F No FB infection
Mon, May 28    209%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  68F No FB infection
Tue, May 29    136%,  0.32'',  13 hrs.,  66F INFECTION RISK
Wed, May 30    119%,  0.01'',  17 hrs.,  68F INFECTION RISK
Thu, May 31    132%,  0.0'',  6 hrs.,  69F INFECTION RISK (if dew)
Fri, June 1    143%,  0.33'',  0 hrs.,  62F No FB infection
Sat, June 2    77%,  1.52'',  20 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Sun, June 3    48%,  0.14'',  13 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Mon, June 4    32%,  0.38'',  24 hrs.,  51F No FB infection
Tue, June 5    7%,  0.16'',  16 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Wed, June 6    5%,  0.27'',  23 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Thu, June 7    2%,  0.30'',  24 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Fri, June 8    38%,  0.08'',  21 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Sat, June 9    85%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  66F No FB infection
Sun, June 10    147%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  67F No FB infection
Mon, June 11    181%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  65F No FB infection
Tue, June 12    179%,  0.52'',  3 hrs.,  66F INFECTION RISK
Wed, June 13    141%,  0.30'',  24 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK
Thu, June 14    110%,  0.0'',  10 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK
Fri, June 15    109%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Sat, June 16    84%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  61F No FB infection
Sun, June 17    86%,  0.0'',  2 hrs.,  59F No FB infection