Fireblight infection conditions - MaryBlyt model logic

Background Information for this page
Return to radar list for Greenville RI
Weather data for Greenville RI.  Forecast values begin May 22, 2013
Shoots near overwintered fireblight cankers would start showing obvious symptoms around  Thursday, June 13
 If canker blight infection spreads to other shoots,
symptoms on those shoots would become obvious around Saturday, June 22
 If blossom infection occurred May 20, blossom blight would be noticeable by June 4, and shoot blight by June 14.
Range of potential
open-blossom dates

Gray row shading indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms and susceptibility to blossom infection, but late blooming cultivars or young trees may still be susceptible.
EIP = Epiphytic inoculum potential threshold.

% EIP,
Inches Rain,
Leaf Wet Hours,
&
Avg. Temperature
    
     In absence of rain, 3 or more hours of leaf wetness is counted as possible dew conditions for adequate wetting, which may overstate risk on such days.
Maryblyt Infection Requirements:
100% EIP (>=198 cumulative degree hours > 65F),
+ > 0" rain, or > 0.1 inch rain on previous day,
+  
Average temp. on wetting day >= 60F
McIntosh King Bloom
 Sun, May 5 
  0%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  49F No FB infection
Mon, May 6    0%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  53F No FB infection
Tue, May 7    20%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  60F No FB infection
Wed, May 8    27%,  0.36'',  20 hrs.,  61F No FB infection
Thu, May 9    18%,  0.52'',  24 hrs.,  59F No FB infection
Fri, May 10    50%,  0.05'',  11 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Sat, May 11    39%,  0.56'',  20 hrs.,  61F No FB infection
Sun, May 12    35%,  0.01'',  13 hrs.,  60F No FB infection
Mon, May 13    24%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  50F No FB infection
Tue, May 14    16%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  49F No FB infection
Wed, May 15    11%,  0.07'',  10 hrs.,  52F No FB infection
Thu, May 16    51%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  64F No FB infection
Fri, May 17    55%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Sat, May 18    58%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Sun, May 19    58%,  0.21'',  8 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Mon, May 20    104%,  0.0'',  13 hrs.,  66F INFECTION RISK
Tue, May 21    91%,  0.36'',  16 hrs.,  65F No FB infection
Wed, May 22    109%,  0.15'',  22 hrs.,  64F INFECTION RISK
Thu, May 23    138%,  0.76'',  22 hrs.,  67F INFECTION RISK
Fri, May 24    93%,  0.78'',  24 hrs.,  63F No FB infection
Sat, May 25    36%,  0.22'',  24 hrs.,  56F No FB infection
Sun, May 26    30%,  0.0'',  9 hrs.,  57F No FB infection
Mon, May 27    34%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  58F No FB infection
Tue, May 28    17%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  60F No FB infection
Wed, May 29    31%,  0.0'',  0 hrs.,  62F No FB infection