| Background Information for this page | |||||
| Return to radar list for Greenville RI | |||||
| Weather data for Greenville RI. Forecast values begin May 20, 2013 | |||||
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This table shows estimates of RELATIVE daily fireblight blossom
infection risk based on weather conditions.
Rating criteria are from the Cougarblight 2010 model developed in
Washington and Oregon by Dr. Timothy J. Smith. ABSOLUTE risk depends on the amount of fire blight bacteria in the area, the number of open flowers, and cultivar and rootstock susceptibility. Relative infection risk may be overstated for first few days of bloom because fire blight bacteria may not have been distributed to open flowers. Gray shading indicates dates when most trees will have lost open blossoms, and are therefore no longer susceptible to blossom infection. These dates included for later blooming cultivars and for late-blooming young trees. Absolute risk is much lower on these dates than during full bloom, but apple trees with open blossoms on these dates are susceptible to the risk rating shown. Fireblight infection can occur without rain if there is "heavy" dew. But heavy dew is not defined in weather reports. As a rough guess, if there is no rain on a day, but leaves are expected to be wet for at least 3 hours, then infection risk is reported with "if dew" attached. Infection potential may be overstated on days when the "if dew" tag is attached. |
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| Fire blight risk estimate varies by block history: | |||||
| I = No active fire blight within 1 mile of
the orchard this year or last year.
Requires 500 – 800 heat units for HIGH rating, 801 – 1000 for EXTREME!, and
1001+ for EXCEPTIONAL! II = Fire blight was present within 1 mile of the orchard last year, but not currently active in the area this year. Requires 200 – 350 heat units for HIGH rating, 351 – 500 for EXTREME!, and 501+ for EXCEPTIONAL! III = Active fire blight cankers within 1 mile of the orchard this year. Requires 100 – 200 heat units for HIGH rating, 200 – 300 for EXTREME!, and 301+ for EXCEPTIONAL! |
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| If blossom infection occurred May 10, then blossom blight would be noticeable by May 28, and shoot blight by June 9. | |||||
| Range of potential open blossom dates for McIntosh and similar cultivars |
Cougarblight Heat Units, Inches Rain, & Leaf Wet Hours |
I - No
FB within one mile last year or this year |
II - FB within one mile last year, but not active within one mile this year | III - FB active within one mile of orchard this year. | |
| McIntosh King Bloom Sun, May 5 |
3 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Mon, May 6 | 11 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Tue, May 7 | 49 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Wed, May 8 | 70 HU, 0.36'', 20 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Thu, May 9 | 78 HU, 0.52'', 24 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Fri, May 10 | 134 HU, 0.05'', 11 hrs | Low | Caution | HIGH | |
| Sat, May 11 | 112 HU, 0.56'', 20 hrs | Low | Caution | HIGH | |
| Sun, May 12 | 102 HU, 0.01'', 13 hrs | Low | Caution | HIGH | |
| Mon, May 13 | 93 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Tue, May 14 | 31 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Wed, May 15 | 22 HU, 0.07'', 10 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Thu, May 16 | 128 HU, 0.0'', 9 hrs | Low | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | |
| Fri, May 17 | 138 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Sat, May 18 | 154 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Sun, May 19 | 159 HU, 0.47'', 8 hrs | Caution | Caution | HIGH | |
| Mon, May 20 | 90 HU, 0.04'', 16 hrs | Low | Low | Caution | |
| Tue, May 21 | 114 HU, 0.18'', 21 hrs | Low | Caution | HIGH | |
| Wed, May 22 | 176 HU, 0.10'', 13 hrs | Caution | Caution | HIGH | |
| Thu, May 23 | 241 HU, 0.48'', 20 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXTREME! | |
| Fri, May 24 | 219 HU, 0.24'', 24 hrs | Caution | HIGH | EXTREME! | |
| Sat, May 25 | 198 HU, 0.0'', 7 hrs | Caution (if dew) | Caution (if dew) | HIGH (if dew) | |
| Sun, May 26 | 133 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |
| Mon, May 27 | 70 HU, 0.0'', 0 hrs | Low | Low | Low | |